Climate Change-A Myth or a Reality?

The Basai Wetland in Gurgaon has turned into a wasteland.

Just today while browsing through some tweets, an Article appearing in Huffington Post Green, dated July 31st caught my attention. The article titled, “ Kivalina’s Climate Change Problem - Why The Small Alaskan Village Is Disappearing”, described how climate change and rising sea levels are threatening the very existence of the village! The opening lines read, “ It is already difficult to find Kivalina on a map, but soon it may be impossible. Not only does the Alaskan village only cover 1.9 square miles of land (while being) home to less than 400 residents, but it is disappearing. Fast. As one of the most apparent and shocking examples of coastal erosion, Kivalina could be uninhabitable by 2025 -- all thanks to climate change.” A summary of a five minutes video clip in the  Huffington post reads, “Narrated in the Inuits’ native tongue, the 5-minute clip shows a quick, tragic peek into the residents’ plight. “It’s just global warming,” one villager says in the video. “I mean, it’s a lot warmer today than it used to be before.”
How then could the fate of Kivalina affect those of us who live many thousands of miles away in India? Well, I guess whatever is happening in a distant land is a warning of what everyone in the world can expect in times to come. Nations and people closest to the polar ice packs are affected sooner than those that are more removed from them in terms of distance. But then, can we afford to be complacent in the knowledge that we are living far away from the nearest coastline far far inland from where all this mess is taking place?

Another story about Global warming revolves around the island nation of Kiribati. This is a low-lying Island Nation located in the central tropical  Pacific Ocean. With a population of over 100,000, its very existence is threatened by rising ocean levels caused by a meltdown of polar ice. The whole populace of Kiribati is looking for an alternate settlement in Australia, the nearest landmass. The Government of Kiribati would have to purchase land in Australia, which I believe is underway!
Popular tourist destinations like the Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles located in the Indian Ocean, are also threatened by rising ocean levels. It would, however, be wrong to conclude that it is only island nations that are affected by rising ocean levels, in fact, countries with coastlines too are vulnerable to rising sea-levels!

Countries that have an extensive coastline will be most affected by rising ocean levels - imagine the strain of resettling the whole population of people living in coastal areas. India’s coastline stretches over 5700 kilometres on the mainland and about 7500 km including the two island territories. The impact of global warming-induced sea level rise due to thermal expansion of near-surface ocean water has great significance for India due to the extensive low-lying densely populated coastal zone. “Sea level rise is likely to result in loss of land due to submergence of coastal areas, an inland extension of saline intrusion and groundwater contamination which may, in turn, have wide economic, cultural and ecological repercussions. Observations suggest that the sea level has risen at a rate of 2.5 mm a year along the Indian coastline since the 1950s. A mean sea level rise of between 15 and 38 cm is projected by the mid-21st century along India’s coast. Added to this, a 15% projected increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones would significantly enhance the vulnerability of populations living in cyclone-prone coastal regions of India. Other sectors vulnerable to climate change include freshwater resources, industry, agriculture, fisheries, tourism and human settlements. Given that many climate change impacts on India’s coastal zone feature irreversible effects, the appropriate national policy response should enhance the resilience and adaptation potential of these areas. India has been identified as one of 27 countries which are most vulnerable to the impacts of global warming-related accelerated sea level rise (UNEP, 1989). The high degree of vulnerability of Indian coasts can be mainly attributed to an extensive low-lying coastal area, high population density, frequent occurrence of cyclones and storms, and high rate of coastal environmental degradation on account of pollution and non-sustainable development. Most of the people residing in coastal zones are directly dependent on the natural resource bases of coastal ecosystems. (Any global warming-induced climatic change” http://in.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070326134710AAFPXMQ.)

Can we then sit complacently in our living rooms, secure in the knowledge of the fact that we are far away from the coastline and perhaps less likely to be affected by a deluge of ocean water? The answer is perhaps a  strong no! The pressure caused by shifting a large population living in coastal areas both in monetary terms and the physical impact can only be guessed! The cost of moving the 400 residents of Kivalini is about $400 million, an amount the government has yet to offer! How much more would it cost the Indian Government to shift millions of residents from coastal areas to higher ground? The figures would surely be staggeringly prohibitive!
The global impact of rehabilitating populations of people affected by rising ocean levels would lead to a global economic meltdown! In an age where the ecosystem is already challenged by an increasing population density caused by the relocation of coastal populations would create havoc at levels beyond comprehension. Added to the burden of looking after a displaced population is the burden it would put on natural resources. Imagine a city like  Delhi having to accommodate an influx of people from coastal areas. A city reeling under the scourge of jammed roads, water shortage, power shortage and law and order problems would crumble at the very outset! Imagine what would happen to other cities which have fewer resources than the capital city!

One of the indicators of a shift in seasons is the shortening of the winters as compared to the lengthening of summer seasons in India. June and July used to be two months where there would be heavy rainfall, and by September the weather would mellow down so that it became pleasant in September. Today, after a period of twenty-five years one can see how the rainfalls have failed, and winters have become really short. 

Today in the year 2023, when I revisit this article that I had written the above article almost ten years ago, I have come to know that the situation is even worse. The world today is facing extreme climate change. The mountains in the north of the country are experiences heavy rainfall, and cloudburst resulting in massive floods and landslides, resulting in numerous casualties. Areas in the southern parts, especially Rajasthan have received heavy rainfall. 

What is even more evident today is that we have probably already crossed the 1.5 degrees increase in global temperature that was expected by the year 2040. At first, we thought we would feel the change gradually but that is not to be as we have experienced severe shifts in the climate. We have witnessed heavier monsoons, warmer winters and extreme heatwaves during the month of June.

The major problems associated with extreme climate change will alter the global political and economic scenario to such an extent that some of the more affluent developed economies in the northern part of the globe will have to barricade themselves so that they are not overwhelmed by refugees from the developing world. As the world battles the ravages of climate change, most parts of the African continent will face extreme drought-like conditions.  Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt will fight over the waters of the Nile.  We have already heard tales about how the South African capital, Johannesburg almost ran out of drinking water. Libya will run out of its underground water resources. Flooding of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong and Yangtze will gradually dwindle into mere trickles of water during the summer months when all the glaciers in the mountains have melted. As a result of drought-like conditions prevailing in the regions, people will be forced to flee from various countries in Africa. Countries like Italy and France are already facing a refugee crisis. The present Ukraine-Russia crisis is not helping things, what with essential supplies of grains for countries in the African continent, such as wheat from Ukraine being choked.

Somehow it all connects. What happened in Kivalina and what is happening in Kiribati have been warning signals that we ignored all those years ago and now we have to face the consequences of being deliberately irresponsible and absent-minded regarding the whole issue of global warming. We were too confident about being safe so far away from the coastal areas but are now experiencing excess rains and flooding in our own backyard.

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